乌市沙依巴克区韩式安全隆胸手术价格北青问问

明星资讯腾讯娱乐2017年10月21日 18:24:02
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SHANGHAI — The new .3 billion Cadillac factory on the outskirts of Shanghai is a shrine to modern manufacturing, the kind of facility that automakers all over the world dream of building but can seldom afford. 上海——这座位于上海郊区的凯迪拉克新工厂造价达13亿美元,是一座现代制造的神殿,全球各地的汽车制造商都梦想修建这样的工厂,但却没有几家负担得起它的成本。 Hundreds of robots bend, arch and twist to assemble the body of Cadillac’s new flagship CT6. Lasers seal the car’s lightweight aluminum exterior using techniques that the carmaker, General Motors, has only just introduced in the ed States. Yardlong, bright yellow robots like mechanical Alaskan huskies tow five-foot-tall carts of auto parts to the assembly line. 数以百计的机器人弯曲、弓起,扭动着,组装凯迪拉克新旗舰车型CT6的车身。激光器对车辆的轻质铝外壳进行密封,这是其制造商通用汽车公司(General Motors)刚刚在美国推出的新技术。一码长的明黄色机器人好像一只只机械阿拉斯加哈士奇,把五英尺高、装着零件的拖车拉到装配线上。 “It’s more along the lines of aircraft technology than traditional, spot-welded steel bodies,” said Paul Buetow, G.M.’s head of manufacturing in China, as he strode along the assembly line. “这更像是飞行器技术的生产线,而不是传统的点焊钢铁车身,”通用汽车中国制造部门主管保罗·布托(Paul Buetow)一边沿着流水线走动一边说。 The factory is part of an aggressive expansion by automakers in China, the world’s largest market for new cars and the industry’s brightest hope for the last 15 years. But the country’s economy is now cooling, which could leave carmakers with too many factories and not enough buyers. 通用汽车在中国积极进行扩张,这个工厂是其部分成果。中国是全球最大的新车市场,也是未来15年里这个行业最大的希望。但中国经济正在降温,拥有太多工厂的汽车制造商可能不会有足够多的购车者。 G.M. will open a second, billion factory in Wuhan next year. G.M.’s main rival in the Chinese market, Volkswagen, plans to open large assembly plants next year alongside its existing factories in the cities of Foshan, Ningbo and Yizheng and build one in Qingdao by 2018. Hyundai plans to complete a factory south of Beijing by October and another in Chongqing next year, while Chinese automakers like Great Wall and Changan are aggressively adding capacity. 通用汽车的第二家十亿美元级工厂明年将在武汉开工。通用汽车在中国市场的主要竞争对手大众汽车(Volkswagen)计划明年在佛山、宁波、仪征的老厂旁边启动大型装配厂,2018年之前在青岛修建一家新工厂。现代汽车(Hyundai)计划今年10月之前在北京南部建成一家新的工厂,明年在重庆建成另外一家。而长城、长安等中国本土汽车制造商也正在积极扩大产能。 The research firm Sanford Bernstein estimates that auto manufacturing capacity in China will rise 22 percent over the next two years, bringing it to 28.8 million cars, minivans and sport utility vehicles annually. That is almost equal to the American and European markets combined, and greater than even the most optimistic forecasts: that sales in China will reach about 25 million next year. 据调研公司桑福德·伯恩斯坦(Sanford Bernstein)估计,在未来两年内,中国汽车产能将增长22%,每年可生产2880万辆轿车、小型货车和运动型多功能车。这几乎相当于美国和欧洲市场的总和,超过即便是最乐观的预测:中国明年的汽车销量将达到2500万辆左右。 Automakers are expanding at a time when China’s economic growth has slowed to its lowest level in more than a quarter-century. China is closing coal mines across the country and plans to shutter steel mills. Exports are falling. Many Chinese cities are dotted with empty apartment buildings. Worried about pollution and traffic jams, China’s wealthiest metropolises have begun limiting the number of new cars that may be registered. 汽车制造商扩大产能之际,正逢中国经济增长放缓至20多年来的最低点。中国各地都在关闭煤矿,还计划关停钢厂。出口正在下滑。很多中国城市都点缀着空荡荡的公寓楼。由于担心污染和交通拥堵,中国最富裕的超级大城市已经开始限制可以上牌照的新车数量。 On the surface, auto sales in China seem strong. More Chinese families can afford cars and are flocking to showrooms. Sales of cars, minivans and sport utility vehicles jumped 8 percent last year from 2014. 从表面上看,中国的汽车销售势头似乎很强劲。越来越多的中国家庭看起来能买得起车了,而且正在涌向展销厅。从2014年到去年,轿车、小型货车和运动型多功能车的销量飙升了8%。 The buyers are not just China’s college-educated, white-collar elite, but also the beneficiaries of the country’s roughly eightfold growth in blue-collar wages in the last dozen years. Zhou Genkou, a burly truck driver, recently waited in a Volkswagen dealership to pay ,300 for a new white Santana sedan. He explained that he could not tolerate life without a car. 购车者不仅有大学学历者、白领精英,而且还包括过去十几年里工资增长了大约七倍的蓝领。周根冦(音)是一个魁梧的卡车司机,近日他在大众汽车经销店里等候为一辆白色桑塔纳新车付1.23万美元(约合人民币8万元)。他解释说,自己过不了没有车的生活。 “It’s so that we don’t have to walk,” he said. “有了车就不用再走路了,”他说。 But there are signs that China’s yearslong auto boom is easing. 但有迹象表明,中国数年来的汽车热潮正在降温。 After car sales fell three months in a row, the Chinese government decided last September to halve the sales tax on cars with engines of 1.6 liters or less, to 5 percent through the end of 2016. The main beneficiaries have been domestic Chinese automakers, mostly affiliated with municipal or provincial governments, that churn out cheap subcompacts with small engines. 去年9月,汽车销量连续下降三个月之后,中国政府决定将1.6升及以下排量轿车的销售税减半至5%,直到2016年年底。这个举措的主要受益者是中国本土汽车公司,它们大多隶属于市级或省级政府,生产小排量的廉价微型车。 A similar tax reduction produced strong sales in 2009 and 2010. But it mainly encouraged consumers to buy sooner. When the tax cut expired, sales essentially leveled off for the next two years. 2009年和2010年时,类似的减税措施导致了强劲的销售势头。但那主要是鼓励消费者将购车计划提前。在减税期结束后的两年里,汽车销售基本趋于平稳。 With the current tax reduction scheduled to end, “2017 will be a very difficult year for the auto industry, probably no growth,” said Yale Zhang, the managing director of Automotive Foresight, a Shanghai consulting firm. 而在目前的减税期结束之后,“2017年将会是汽车行业非常困难的一年,可能不会有任何增长,”上海咨询公司汽车市场预测(Automotive Foresight)总监张豫(Yale Zhang)说。 Multinationals are focusing more on higher-profit segments that are growing without help from such incentives. But they are also finishing up a factory-building spree that started three years ago, when the economy was healthier. 跨国公司更加集中在高利润细分市场上,销售增长不受这种激励措施的影响。但它们也在三年前掀起了建厂热潮,当时中国的经济形势还比较健康。 “We see China moving to a pace of what I would call moderate growth,” said Matthew Tsien, the G.M. executive vice president who oversees the company’s China business. “我们认为,中国正在转向一种我称为‘适度增长’的步伐,”通用汽车中国区总裁钱惠康(Matthew Tsien)说。 Volkswagen forecasts that China’s auto market will grow slightly faster than the overall economy this year and slightly slower than the overall economy for the rest of the decade. G.M. is forecasting that the market will grow a little less than 5 percent a year through the end of the decade, the equivalent of adding the entire auto market of Japan, or five Australias. 大众汽车公司预测,中国汽车市场今年的增长将超过整体经济,而在这个十年剩下的时间里,它的增长将略慢于整体经济。通用汽车公司预测,该市场在2020年以前将以每年略低于5%的速度增长,增量相当于整个日本汽车市场,或者五个澳大利亚汽车市场。 Both automakers are planning to meet much of that growth with factories they have aly commissioned or will soon finish. But if the economy weakens significantly, the industry could get stuck with a large amount of excess capacity. 这两家汽车制造商都计划通过已经委托建造的或即将完工的工厂满足大部分增长需求。但如果经济大幅下滑,汽车行业将陷入产能过剩的困境。 “Are manufacturers going to keep the rose-colored glasses or get real? Most of the multinationals are going to get real and slow down the new capacity,” said Bill Russo, former chief executive of Chrysler China and now a consultant. “I’m not sure about the local manufacturers. They have a ‘Field of Dreams’ and ‘build it and they will come’ mentality.” “制造商会保持乐观还是会现实一些?大部分跨国公司会现实一些,放缓新增产能,”克莱斯勒中国公司(Chrysler China)前首席执行官比尔·鲁索(Bill Russo)说。“我不确定当地制造商的情况。他们有种电影《梦幻成真》[Field of Dreams]里的心态,‘只要去建造,他们就会来。’”鲁索现在担任顾问。 Chinese auto industry leaders shrug off such concerns. “They see the small-car market as having a lot of potential,” said Cui Dongshu, the secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association. 中国汽车行业的领袖对这些担忧不予理会。全国乘用车市场信息联席会秘书长崔东树说,“他们看到小型车市场具有很大潜力。” The Chinese economy needs continued strength in the auto market. The government wants to shift to a new, more sustainable model for growth based on consumer spending. 中国经济需要汽车市场继续走强。政府希望转向以消费出为基础的、更具可持续性的新增长模式。 Since 2009, China has depended heavily on a loan-fed surge in construction of ever more highways, rail lines, factories and other investments. But that has produced a mountain of debt, particularly at state-owned enterprises. 自2009年以来,中国严重依赖贷款促进建筑项目的增加,建造更多公路、铁路线、工厂及加大其他投资。但这给相关公司带来了巨额债务,特别是国企。 Strong auto sales helped China attain a little-noticed milestone in recent months. Overall retail sales of consumer goods in China surpassed such sales in the ed States, according to official data. 近几个月来强劲的汽车销售帮助中国达到了一个不太引人注意的里程碑。官方数据显示,中国的消费品零售总额超过了美国。 If sales do slow sharply, the question is whether multinationals and domestic automakers will try to start exporting more from their Chinese factories. The facilities are among the most advanced in the world, not least because they are also the newest. 如果销售大幅放缓,问题在于国际及国内汽车制造商是否会尝试开始出口更多中国工厂生产的汽车。这些工厂是世界上最先进的——一个重要的原因是它们都是最新建造的。 G.M. and other automakers could in theory try to export more cars to the ed States, which is also a relatively healthy market. One potential obstacle, however, is that China’s surplus capacity is mainly in subcompact cars, for which Americans have little appetite. 通用和其他汽车制造商理论上可以尝试向美国出口更多汽车,美国也是一个相对健康的市场。但中国的汽车生产力过剩主要出现在小型汽车领域,美国人对这种汽车不太感兴趣,这可能是一个阻碍。 G.M. is aly preparing to start shipping a new car-based sport utility vehicle, the Buick Envision, from China to the ed States, from a factory in northeastern China. The arrival of the Envision, which is being built only in China, Buick’s biggest market by far, will be the mass market debut of Chinese-built cars in Big Three showrooms in the ed States. 通用已经准备开始从中国东北的一家工厂向美国运送以轿车为基础的多功能运动型车别克昂科威(Buick Envision)。这款汽车只在中国生产,中国是别克目前最大的市场。这将是中国生产的汽车首次在美国“三巨头”的展销厅面向大众市场销售。 The preferences of Chinese consumers tend to be different from those of American buyers. Chinese customers, for example, are highly prone to complain if fabrics and other materials in a car’s interior do not smell quite right, according to surveys by J. D. Power amp; Associates. Many in the auto industry have said they will be watching how American buyers respond to Chinese-built Envisions. 中国消费者的偏好往往与美国顾客不同。例如,市场咨询公司J. D. Power amp; Associates的调查显示,中国顾客经常抱怨汽车内部的织物及其他材料有异味。很多汽车行业的人士表示,他们将会关注美国顾客对中国制造的昂科威汽车的反应。 “So will we,” said Mr. Buetow of G.M. 通用的布托表示,“我们也会关注。” /201603/434350

China’s crushing overcapacity risks inflaming trade tensions as well as swamping the country’s companies with debt, the European Chamber of Commerce in Beijing has warned.北京中国欧盟商会(European Chamber of Commerce in China)警告称,中国严重的产能过剩可能加剧贸易紧张,还可能令中国企业背上大量债务。“They can’t outgrow this problem any more,” J Wuttke, president of the European Chamber, said in Beijing. “Politicians need to realise that [Chinese] overcapacity leads to job losses, which leads to protectionism in Europe.”中国欧盟商会主席伍德克(J Wuttke)在北京表示:“他们不能再用增长来摆脱这个问题了。政界人士必须认识到,(中国的)产能过剩导致工作岗位流失,进而导致欧洲的保护主义。”Six out of eight industries studied by the chamber, ranging from glass to paper to steel, show signs that factories are operating at even lower rates than they were in 2009 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. In the industries studied, Chinese companies compete with large European businesses.中国欧盟商会研究了玻璃、造纸和钢铁等八个产业,其中六个产业显示出工厂的开工率比2009年全球金融危机过后更低。在这些被研究的产业中,中国企业与欧洲大型企业展开竞争。The warning comes as the Chinese government grows vocal about the problems of the overcapacity unleashed six years ago, when Beijing authorised a flood of credit to selected industries to offset a steep drop in international demand for its exports. A December study by the People’s Bank of China found similar declines in industry utilisation rates in Jiangsu province.中国欧盟商会发出这一警告之际,中国政府对于六年前酿成的产能过剩问题也日益直言不讳——当时中国政府授权向特定产业释放了大量信用,以抵消国际上对中国出口需求的急剧下滑。中国央行(PBoC)去年12月份开展的研究也在江苏省发现了类似幅度的行业产能利用率下滑。European nations are pushing the EU to take action against imports of Chinese steel in defence of European mills while a case against Chinese aluminium exports is brewing in the US.欧洲各国正在推动欧盟(EU)针对从中国进口的钢材采取行动,以保护欧洲的炼钢厂。与此同时,美国也在酝酿针对中国铝材出口的反倾销案。More worrying for central planners is the deteriorating return on capital investment in China and the difficulty many state-owned and private businesses are having in paying off loans.对中央规划人员来说,更令人担心的是中国的资本投资回报率正在下降,以及许多国企和民企在偿付贷款方面遇到的困难。“The downward pressure has still not let up. PPI [producer price index] is still falling, overcapacity pressures are high, corporate profits are down,” Wang Yiming, vice-minister of the Development Research Centre which advises China’s cabinet, said in a briefing last week.国务院发展研究中心(Development Research Centre)副主任王一鸣上周在一个情况介绍会上表示,中国经济下行压力没有完全释放,工业品价格持续下滑,产能过剩压力很大,企业利润下降。国务院发展研究中心是一个为中国国务院提供咨询的机构。Industrial lobby groups dominated by state-owned enterprises are using the strain to argue that the government should close their private, often smaller and more nimble competitors. But the European report concludes that the lion’s share of the problem lies with bloated state companies. They enjoy easy access to loans from state-owned banks and protection from local officials who worry about the impact of a shutdown on local jobs and bank loans.国企占统治地位的行业游说组织正在利用这一压力,声称政府应该关闭其民企竞争对手,这些竞争对手往往规模更小而更为灵活。然而,中国欧盟商会的报告认定,问题主要在于臃肿的国企。它们不仅容易从国有获得贷款,还容易得到地方官员的保护,这些地方官员担心关闭国企会影响当地就业和贷款。 /201602/428204

  B News – Projections from a referendum in Switzerland suggest voters have rejected a plan to introduce a guaranteed basic income for all.B新闻- 瑞士公投的预测表明, 投票者否决了推行人人享有有保障的基本收入的计划。The proposal had called for adults to be paid an unconditional monthly income, whether they worked or not.该提案呼吁付给成人无条件的月收入,无论他们工作与否。Supporters said since work was increasingly automated, fewer jobs were available for workers. Switzerland is the first country to hold such a vote.持者说,因为工作日益自动化,工人能应聘的岗位越来越少。瑞士是第一个举行这种投票的国家。No figure for the basic income had been set, but those behind the proposal suggested a monthly income of 2,500 Swiss francs (£1,755; ,555) for adults and SFr625 for each child, reflecting the high cost of living in Switzerland. It is not clear how it would affect people on higher salaries.基本收入的数字并未确定,但持提案的人提议每月付成人2500瑞郎(合1755英镑;2555美元),每个儿童625瑞郎,反映了瑞士的高生活成本。不清楚这会对高薪人群带来怎样的影响。There was little support among Swiss politicians for the idea and not a single parliamentary party has come out in favour, but the proposal gathered more than 100,000 signatures and was therefore put to the vote under the Swiss popular initiative system.瑞士政界对此提议和者甚寡,没有一个议会党派出面赞成,但提案征集到超过10万个签名,因此在瑞士的全民创制体制下被付诸表决。Critics of the measure say that disconnecting the link between work done and money earned would be bad for society.批评这个措施的人说,割断干多少活挣多少钱之间的联系,对社会不利。But Che Wagner from the campaign group Basic Income Switzerland, says it wouldn#39;t be money for nothing. ;In Switzerland over 50% of total work that is done is unpaid. It#39;s care work, it#39;s at home, it#39;s in different communities, so that work would be more valued with a basic income.;但“瑞士基本收入”活动团体的瓦格纳说,这个措施不会是不劳而获。“在瑞士,全部工作中50%多是无偿劳动。护理工作,家务劳动,各个社区中的工作都是,所以有了基本收入,工作会更显价值。”But Luzi Stamm, who#39;s a member of parliament for the right-wing Swiss People#39;s Party, opposes the idea. ;Theoretically, if Switzerland were an island, the answer is yes. But with open borders, it#39;s a total impossibility, especially for Switzerland, with a high living standard. If you would offer every individual a Swiss amount of money, you would have billions of people who would try to move into Switzerland.; he says.但右翼瑞士人民党的议员斯塔姆反对提议。“理论上,如果瑞士是个岛国,是肯定的。但有着开放边境,就完全不可能,特别是对瑞士这样生活水平高的国家。如果给每个人发瑞士的钱,就会有几十亿人想要迁入瑞士。”他说。 /201606/449456

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  Back in the 1960s there was a briefly popular wave of “futurism,” of books and articles attempting to predict the changes ahead. One of the best-known, and certainly the most detailed, of these works was Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener’s “The Year 2000” (1967), which offered, among other things, a systematic list of technological innovations Kahn and Wiener considered “very likely in the last third of the 20th century.”早在20世纪60年代,“未来主义”思潮曾经有过一个短暂的兴盛,许多书籍文章都试图预测未来的社会变化。其中最著名,也绝对是最详尽的一本书,是1967年出版的赫尔曼·卡恩(Herman Kahn)和安东尼·维纳(Anthony J. Wiener)的《2000年》(The Year 2000)。在这本书里,卡恩和维纳系统化地列出了一份他们认为“在20世纪最后那三分之一的时间里最有可能发生的科技创新”清单。Unfortunately, the two authors were mostly wrong. They didn’t miss much, foreseeing developments that recognizably correspond to all the main elements of the information technology revolution, including smartphones and the Internet. But a majority of their predicted innovations (“individual flying platforms”) hadn’t arrived by 2000 — and still haven’t arrived, a decade and a half later.遗憾的是,这两位作者的预测并不太准确。这并不是说他们有什么遗漏。信息科技革命主要元素所带来的一切发展变革,包括智能手机和互联网,都在他们的预见之中。然而,他们预测的绝大多数创新(例如“私人飞行平台”)都落空了,不但未能在2000年实现,即使在15年之后的今天也仍然未见踪影。The truth is that if you step back from the headlines about the latest gadget, it becomes obvious that we’ve made much less progress since 1970 — and experienced much less alteration in the fundamentals of life — than almost anyone expected. Why?如果你跳出那些铺天盖地的最新产品报道,就会发现一个明显的现实:自1970年以来,我们社会的进步,以及我们基本生活方式的改变,远逊于我们所有人的预期。Robert J. Gordon, a distinguished macro and economic historian at Northwestern, has been arguing for a long time against the techno-optimism that saturates our culture, with its constant assertion that we’re in the midst of revolutionary change. Starting at the height of the dot-com frenzy, he has repeatedly called for perspective: Developments in information and communication technology, he has insisted, just don’t measure up to past achievements. Specifically, he has argued that the I.T. revolution is less important than any one of the five Great Inventions that powered economic growth from 1870 to 1970: electricity, urban sanitation, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, the internal combustion engine and modern communication.长期以来,科技乐观主义渗透在我们的社会文化之中,人们一直认为我们所身处的时代是一个革命性的变革时代。任教于西北大学的罗伯特·戈登(Robert J. Gordon),一个杰出的宏观经济学家和经济历史学家,却始终对这种科技乐观主义持反对态度。从互联网最繁荣时期开始,他一再警示世人保持冷静。他指出,信息通讯技术的发展根本不能与过去的成就相提并论。具体而言,他认为:电力、城市卫生、化学与制药、内燃机和现代通讯这“五大发明”推动了从1870到1970这100年间的经济发展,而信息科技革命与其中任何一项发明都无法比拟。In “The Rise and Fall of American Growth,” Gordon doubles down on that theme, declaring that the kind of rapid economic growth we still consider our due, and expect to continue forever, was in fact a one-time-only event. First came the Great Inventions, almost all dating from the late 19th century. Then came refinement and exploitation of those inventions — a process that took time, and exerted its peak effect on economic growth between 1920 and 1970. Everything since has at best been a faint echo of that great wave, and Gordon doesn’t expect us ever to see anything similar.在《美国增长的起落》(The Rise and Fall of American Growth)这本书中,戈登进一步强调了这一论点,宣称这种经济的快速增长并非理所当然。它只是历史上发生的一个一次性事件,不会如我们所愿一直持续下去。首先,几乎所有“五大发明”都发生在19世纪后期;接着是对这些发明进行提炼和开发的漫长过程,其对经济增长的影响在1920到1970年期间达到顶峰;那以后的一切都不过是之前这个伟大变革的微弱余波而已。戈登认为我们不会再次看到历史的重演。Is he right? My answer is a definite maybe. But whether or not you end up agreeing with Gordon’s thesis, this is a book well worth ing — a magisterial combination of deep technological history, vivid portraits of daily life over the past six generations and careful economic analysis. Non-economists may find some of the charts and tables heavy going, but Gordon never loses sight of the real people and real lives behind those charts. This book will challenge your views about the future; it will definitely transform how you see the past.他说得是否正确?我的回答是:绝对有可能。不过,不管你最终是否同意戈登的论断,这本书都值得一读。它将深刻的科技发展史、过去六代人日常生活的生动描述,以及细致的经济分析完美地整合在一起。如果你不是一个经济学家,也许你会觉得有些图表比较难懂,但是戈登从未忽视那些图表背后的民众真实生活。这本书不但会挑战你对未来的视角,而且肯定会改变你对过去的看法。Indeed, almost half the book is devoted to changes that took place before World War II. Others have covered this ground — most notably Daniel Boorstin in “The Americans: The Democratic Experience.” Even knowing this literature, however, I was fascinated by Gordon’s account of the changes wrought by his Great Inventions. As he says, “Except in the rural South, daily life for every American changed beyond recognition between 1870 and 1940.” Electric lights replaced candles and whale oil, flush toilets replaced outhouses, cars and electric trains replaced horses. (In the 1880s, parts of New York’s financial district were seven feet deep in manure.)这本书一半以上篇幅都被用来专门描绘“二战”之前所发生的变化。对这一阶段的研究不乏著述,其中最引人注目的是丹尼尔·布尔斯廷(Daniel Boorstin)的《美国人:南北战争以来的经历》(The Americans:The Democratic Experience)。虽然我对这些文献相当熟悉,戈登对其“五大发明”所带来的变革之描述依然使我着迷。如他所说:“除了南方乡下,每一个美国人的日常生活在1870到1940年间都发生了翻天覆地的变化。”电灯代替了蜡烛和油灯,抽水马桶代替了屋外的茅房,汽车和电动火车代替了马车(在19世纪80年代,纽约金融区的一部分还泡在七英尺深的马粪中呢)。 Meanwhile, backbreaking toil both in the workplace and in the home was for the most part replaced by far less onerous employment. This is a point all too often missed by economists, who tend to think only about how much purchasing power people have, not about what they have to do to get it, and Gordon does an important service by reminding us that the conditions under which men and women labor are as important as the amount they get paid.同时,无论是在工作场所,还是家庭生活中,繁重的劳作大多被相对轻松的工作所代替。这一点经常被经济学家们所忘记。他们一般只考虑民众的购买力,而不考虑他们为了获得这些购买力所需要付出的劳动。戈登的重要贡献是提醒我们,民众的劳作条件与他们的收入所得同样重要。Aside from its being an interesting story, however, why is it important to study this transformation? Mainly, Gordon suggests — although these are my words, not his — to provide a baseline. What happened between 1870 and 1940, he argues, and I would agree, is what real transformation looks like. Any claims about current progress need to be compared with that baseline to see how they measure up.这段历史是一段很有意思的往事。然而,除此之外,对这些变迁的研究究竟有什么重要性呢?我的理解是这样的:戈登提出,这段历史可以为我们研究后期历史提供一个对比的基准。戈登声称,1870到1940年这段时期是一个真正变革的样本,我同意他的这个说法。我们需要与这个历史上的变革时期去比较,才能对现代社会发展进程的快慢做一个恰当的判断。And it’s hard not to agree with him that nothing that has happened since is remotely comparable. Urban life in America on the eve of World War II was aly recognizably modern; you or I could walk into a 1940s apartment, with its indoor plumbing, gas range, electric lights, refrigerator and telephone, and we’d find it basically functional. We’d be annoyed at the lack of television and Internet — but not horrified or disgusted.如此,我们不得不赞同他所说:1940年以后所发生的一切,与以前根本无法相提并论。“二战”前夕的美国城市生活已经相当现代化;我们可以随意走进一间1940年时的公寓,看到它里面的下水设施、煤气灶、电灯、冰箱和电话,我们会觉得它已经具备一间房子的所有基本功能。也许我们会因为没有电视和网络而感到不便,但却不会感到无法忍受。By contrast, urban Americans from 1940 walking into 1870-style accommodations — which they could still do in the rural South — were indeed horrified and disgusted. Life fundamentally improved between 1870 and 1940 in a way it hasn’t since.相反,1940年的城市美国人却会对1870年代的住房感到无法忍受——那时在美国南方乡下还可以找到这种房子。在1870年到1940年间,人类的生活条件发生了前所未有的根本变化。Now, in 1940 many Americans were aly living in what was recognizably the modern world, but many others weren’t. What happened over the next 30 years was that the further maturing of the Great Inventions led to rapidly rising incomes and a sp of that modern lifestyle to the nation as a whole. But then everything slowed down. And Gordon argues that the slowdown is likely to be permanent: The great age of progress is behind us. But is Gordon just from the wrong generation, unable to fully appreciate the wonders of the latest technology? I suspect that things like social media make a bigger positive difference to people’s lives than he acknowledges. But he makes two really good points that throw quite a lot of cold water on the claims of techno-optimists.当然,在1940年,尽管许多美国人已经过上了比较现代的生活,但很多人还未能享受同等条件。在接下来的30年里,随着“五大发明”进一步成熟,人们的收入迅速提升,现代生活方式在全国大幅扩展。但是,在此之后,进展逐步放缓。戈登认为这种缓慢的进展可能才是永久常态,大变革时期已经结束。然而,这会不会是因为戈登那代人头脑已经老化,无法充分体会最新科技之神奇呢?我认为,戈登的确没有完全意识到像网络社交媒体这样的新科技给人们生活带来的正面影响。但是,有两点他说得非常好,十分切中科技乐观主义者观点的要害。First, he points out that genuinely major innovations normally bring about big changes in business practices, in what workplaces look like and how they function. And there were some changes along those lines between the mid-1990s and the mid-2000s — but not much since, which is evidence for Gordon’s claim that the main impact of the I.T. revolution has aly happened.首先,他指出:真正的重大革新往往会根本改变商业行为,为企业工作场所及其职能带来巨大的变化。20世纪90年代中期开始的这10年中,这方面的确发生了一些变化,然而那之后,就再没有什么改变了。这正印了戈登的断言:信息科技革命的主要影响已经过去了。Second, one of the major arguments of techno-optimists is that official measures of economic growth understate the real extent of progress, because they don’t fully account for the benefits of truly new goods. Gordon concedes this point, but notes that it was always thus — and that the understatement of progress was probably bigger during the great prewar transformation than it is today.其次,技术乐观主义者的一个主要观点是,经济增长的官方数据低估了进步的真实程度,因为他们没有充分考虑真正的新产品所带来的益处。戈登承认这一点,但指出,这和过去并没有什么不同。相反,在战前的大变革时期,这种低估很有可能要比今天更甚。So what does this say about the future? Gordon suggests that the future is all too likely to be marked by stagnant living standards for most Americans, because the effects of slowing technological progress will be reinforced by a set of “headwinds”: rising inequality, a plateau in education levels, an aging population and more.这对未来意味着什么呢?戈登认为,对大多数美国人来说,未来很有可能是生活水平停滞不前。技术进步的缓慢将被一系列“逆向”因素强化:贫富差距不断加大、教育水平不再提高、人口趋于老龄化,等等。It’s a shocking prediction for a society whose self-image, arguably its very identity, is bound up with the expectation of constant progress. And you have to wonder about the social and political consequences of another generation of stagnation or decline in working-class incomes.我们社会的自我形象,甚至可以说自我认同,都以不断的发展进步为核心。戈登对未来的预测实在是振聋发聩、发人深省。我们不得不认真思考,如果下一代工薪阶层收入继续停滞或下降,这将会带来什么样的社会和政治后果。Of course, Gordon could be wrong: Maybe we’re on the cusp of truly transformative change, say from artificial intelligence or radical progress in biology (which would bring their own risks). But he makes a powerful case. Perhaps the future isn’t what it used to be.当然,戈登也有可能错了。也许我们正处在一个真正的革命性变革的前夕,这种变革也许是人工智能或者在生物学上的根本性进展(当然伴随而来的还有相应的风险)。但是他的确提出了一个强有力的论。也许,未来和过去的确不再相同。 /201602/426167

  Some online stores on the shopping site Taobao have banned buyers who give favorable ratings for less than 98 percent of their purchases, in an attempt to curb ;unfavorable ratings with malicious intent,; Beijing Youth Daily reported.《北京青年报》报道,为了控制“恶意差评”,购物网站淘宝上的一些网店已经禁止好评率低于98%的买家购物。Recently, some buyers have complained that they were unable to buy goods at certain Taobao stores because their ;favorable; ratings did not meet seller requirements.近期,部分买家抱怨,他们在某些淘宝店无法购物,因为他们的“好评率”没有达到卖家的要求。A woman surnamed Li said a Taobao store declined her order for shampoo and asked her to apply for a refund, saying her previous ratings on Taobao failed to meet the company#39;s requirement of 100 percent favorable.一名姓厉的女子表示,一家淘宝店拒绝了她的洗发露订单,并要求她申请退款。店家对此解释道,她之前在淘宝上的评价没有满足该公司100%的好评要求。Another woman, named Tong, said she was unable to purchase a dress due to a similar problem.另外一名姓佟的女子表示,由于相同的问题,她没法购买衣。Taobao#39;s customer service center denied ever making such a requirement.淘宝中心否认了曾经有过类似的要求。A service clerk advised the buyers to communicate with the sellers to reach a solution, since ;buying and selling are supposed to be based on free will.;一名务人员建议买家与卖家应进行沟通,以达成一个解决方法,因为“买卖应该是基于自愿的。”Qiu Baochang, a Beijing-based lawyer, said the sellers were violating consumer rights. So long as the ratings are true and objective, consumers have the right to make their own judgements, he said.北京一名名叫邱宝昌的律师称,卖家这样就侵犯了消费者权利。他表示,只要评价是真实和客观的,消费者就有权做出他们自己的判断。If it evolves into an unspoken rule, it could harm fair trade and the overall growth of the online shopping industry, he warned.他对此警告称,如果发展成为一个潜规则,这会有损公平交易和网购行业的整体发展。 /201703/498990

  

  

  A group of ex-supermarket employees in Beijing are in police custody for stealing 40 million yuan ( million) by hacking into and recharging used supermarket gift cards.一伙前超市员工在北京因涉嫌侵入和充值已经使用过的超市购物卡,盗取4000万元(600万美元)而被警方拘留。The scam not only fueled shopping sprees for iPhones and high-end liquor, but the group also attempted to hide the large amounts of cash in Beijing real estate and other investments, media reported.据媒体报道,这一骗局不仅涉及了对iPhone和高端白酒的疯狂购物,该团伙还试图在北京房地产和其他投资领域藏匿大量现金。Beijing police said that between May 2015 and June 2016, the six suspects managed to skim the cash from 6,000 gift cards at supermarkets across the city.据北京警方表示,在2015年5月到2016年6月间,六名犯罪嫌疑人设法在这座城市的各个超市利用6000张购物卡提取现金。The ringleader, surnamed Wen, told police he learned how to exploit security loopholes in gift cards while employed as an IT administrator at a large supermarket in Beijing#39;s Fengtai district.团伙头目文某向警方透露,他在北京市丰台区一家大型超市做IT管理员时,学会了如何利用购物卡的安全漏洞来获利。He and another coworker, surnamed Zhao, then concocted their high-tech plan with fellow employees.他和另一位同事赵某一起,与其他员工继续谋划他们的“高科技计划”。While on the clock, a colleague would use a code key to switch on the supermarket computers that would enable Wen to access the company#39;s mainframe remotely to reactivate the cards.在上班时间,一位同事会利用一个软件解码器打开超市的计算机,使文某远程访问该公司的主机,再次充值购物卡。Others would then use the recharged cards at stores across the city or convert the cards into cash.其他人则使用再次充值的购物卡在这座城市的商店消费,或将卡转换成现金。The scam continued for a year until a cashier in a Fengtai district supermarket came across one of the visibly-used gift cards and became suspicious.整个骗局持续了一年,直到丰台区一家超市的一名收银员偶然发现了一张明显使用过的购物卡,对此产生了怀疑。;All our cards are one-use only, after that they#39;re done. And we never issue or let customers use old cards,; said the employee.这名员工表示:“我们所有的卡都是一次性的,消费之后卡就作废。而且我们从来不会发放或让顾客使用旧卡。”Employees soon discovered that more than 6,000 cards had been hacked, a number of them repeatedly.超市员工们很快发现,有6000多张卡遭到黑客攻击,其中一些已经多次使用。Police traced the transactions to Wen and five other suspects, two of whom had used their split to buy apartments in Beijing#39;s pricey community.警方通过追踪文某及其他五名犯罪嫌疑人的交易记录,发现其中两人已经用他们分得的赃款在北京的高档小区买下了公寓。;When we opened the doors, we found all kinds of high-end electronics stacked in there, and two of every kind,; said police.警方表示:“当我们打开门时,发现各种高档电子产品堆放在那里,每种都有两个。”The six suspects are currently awaiting trial.目前这六名犯罪嫌疑人正在等待审判。 /201610/471040。

  

  

  

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