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What's in a name? Letters that offer clues to one's future decisions. Previous studies have suggested that a person's monogram may influence his life choices - where he works, whom he marries or where he lives - because of "implicit egotism". For instance, a person named Fred might be attracted to the notion of living in Fresno, working for Forever 21 or driving a Ford.  名字里有什么?名字能预示一个人在未来做什么决定。此前种种研究表明,一个人的姓名可影响他生命中的重大决策——在哪里工作、和谁结婚或者住在哪里,而这种影响源于“内隐自大”。举个例子,一个名为“弗雷德”的人有可能倾向于居住在“弗雷斯诺”,到Forever 21公司工作,或者开一辆福特轿车。  Now a new study by professor Uri Simonsohn takes another look at the so-called name-letter effect and offers other explanations for the phenomenon. Uri found that the name of a person's workplace more closely correlated with the first three letters of a person's name. But Uri suggests that the reason for the association isn't implicit egotism.  而如今乌里教授的一项新研究为这种“姓名字母效应”提供了新视角,并为该现象提供了多种解释。乌里发现,一个人工作单位的名字和此人姓名的前三个字母关系最为密切。但乌里指出,这种联系并非源于“内隐自大”。  One alternative explanation to implicit egotism for these findings is reverse causality: Rather than employees seeking out companies with similar names, people starting new companies may name them after themselves.  他表示,有一种解释可以替代“内隐自大”理论,即“反向因果关系”:即并非人们愿意到有与自己姓名相似名称的公司工作,事实上是,创业者更愿意用自己的姓名来命名公司。 /201103/128890

With hope fading that Microsoft Corp.#39;s new Windows 8 software will reignite computer sales, attention is aly shifting to the company#39;s next big effort to regain relevance: Windows Blue.对微软(Microsoft Corp.)新操作系统Windows 8重振电脑销售的希望变得越来越渺茫。市场注意力也已经转向该公司重振旗鼓的下一个主要项目:Windows Blue。Microsoft has yet to formally define the software project. But Windows Blue is expected to mark a major change in the company#39;s development methodology, replacing major launches of products every several years with frequent updates of features in operating software and applications such as Office.微软还没有正式定义这个软件项目。但是Windows Blue预计将标志着公司发展方式的一个重大改变,不再每隔数年发布重大产品,而是频繁地对操作系统和Office等应用程序进行更新。That model is common in Internet services and apps, markets where Microsoft is determined to play a larger role. Some analysts think Windows Blue will help bring together efforts such as Windows 8─which is targeted at tablets and personal computers─and the Windows Phone software for smartphones.这种模式在互联网务和应用程序中十分常见,微软正下定决心在上述市场中扮演更大的角色。一些分析人士认为,Windows Blue将有助于整合Windows 8和Windows Phone的优势。Windows 8针对的是平板电脑和个人电脑,而Windows Phone针对的则是智能手机。#39;Windows 8 was about birthing a new model of applications, essentially a tablet model,#39; said IDC analyst Al Hilwa. #39;Blue is the next milestone in this plan. It brings the phone and PC platform closer together and makes both more compelling.#39;国际数据公司(IDC)的分析师席尔瓦(Al Hilwa)说,Windows 8是为了催生一个应用程序的新模式,尤其是一个平板电脑的模式。Blue是该计划的下一个里程碑。它使手机和个人电脑平台的关系更加紧密,让这两种产品都更有吸引力。The stakes for Windows Blue rose this week when two market research firms reported that shipments of PCs fell by double-digits percentages in the first three months of this year.Windows Blue的重要性本周进一步上升。两个市场研究公司发布报告说,今年前三个月,个人电脑的出货量出现了两位数的降幅。Figures from IDC and Gartner Inc. released Wednesday showed Windows 8 hasn#39;t spurred much demand for PCs or tablets running the software. IDC leveled particularly harsh criticism at the software, saying some consumers were turned off by its touch-based interface.国际数据公司(IDC)和Gartner Inc.周三公布的数据显示,Windows 8还没有能够刺激人们对搭载该软件的个人电脑或平板电脑的太多需求。国际数据公司对这款软件提出了尤其严厉的批评,称这款软件的触屏交互界面让一些消费者选择放弃购买。The surprisingly steep drop─IDC called it the worst since it began releasing quarterly numbers for the software in 1994─caused a selloff in PC-related stocks Thursday. Microsoft#39;s stock price slipped 4.9% Thursday afternoon to .82, after the company#39;s stock price had touched a six-month high Wednesday.国际数据公司说,这是1994年开始公布这款软件的季度数据以来最糟糕的表现。个人电脑出货量令人惊讶的大幅下降也导致个人电脑相关股票暴跌。微软的股价周四下午下跌了4.9%,至28.82美元。此前,该公司股价曾于周三触及六个月高点。A spokesman for Microsoft had no immediate comment Thursday.微软的一名发言人周四没有立即置评。Hewlett-Packard Co., the largest PC maker and a major Microsoft customer, showed the steepest decline in shipments in the first quarter, with a 24% drop, according to IDC. H-P#39;s stock fell 6.4% to .86 in recent trading.根据国际数据公司的数据,惠普(Hewlett-Packard Co.)第一季度的出货量降幅最大,达到24%。该公司是全球最大的个人电脑制造商,也是微软的主要客户。惠普股价最近下跌了6.4%,至20.86美元。But executives at Microsoft and partners such as Intel Corp. have acknowledged there is more work to do to encourage a wider array of touch-screen computing devices powered by Windows 8, and at lower price points.但是微软以及英特尔(Intel Corp.)等合作伙伴的高管们承认,要想鼓励电脑厂商们推出更多更便宜的Windows 8触屏电脑设备,还有很多工作要做。Intel, which supplies microprocessors that serve as calculating engines in most PCs, is emphasizing a new line of battery-conserving chips that is known by the code name Haswell. The chips are expected to display much more sophisticated graphics and extend battery life on portable computers to eight to 10 hours.英特尔为大多数个人电脑提供微处理器,微处理器相当于电脑中的计算引擎。英特尔目前正在专注于一个代号为Haswell的新型节电芯片产品系列。这些芯片预计将能够展示更复杂的图形,将便携电脑的续航时间延长到八至10小时。Microsoft also has offered price breaks on its Windows software meant for a new class of simple PCs known as netbooks and seems to be responding to a market shift in consumer demand toward smaller tablets.微软还下调了一些Windows软件的价格。这些软件针对的是被称作上网本的新一类简化个人电脑。与此同时,该公司似乎正在对消费者需求转向更小尺寸的平板电脑做出回应。The company last year entered the market itself with the tablet known as Surface, just as products such as Apple Inc.#39;s iPad Mini spurred demand for smaller models. Microsoft is now preparing a similarly small model with a seven-inch display, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.微软去年凭借Surface平板电脑进入这一市场。当时,苹果公司(Apple Inc.)的iPad Mini等产品刺激了消费者对更小型号平板电脑的需求。《华尔街日报》周三报道说,微软正在准备一款类似的小型平板电脑,这款平板电脑将拥有7英寸的显示屏。Executives at Intel and Microsoft have said they expect new computer chips and other advancements to drive down the cost of touch-screen laptops to as low as 0 or 0. For now, there are very few Windows 8 touch-screen computers on the market for less than 0.英特尔和微软的高管说,他们预计新的电脑芯片和其他方面的改进将使触屏笔记本电脑的成本降至500美元或600美元。目前,市场上几乎没有价格低于550美元的Windows 8触屏电脑。Some on Wall Street aren#39;t waiting for a new spark for PC and tablet demand. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Nomura Securities downgraded their recommendations on Microsoft shares on Thursday, contributing to a selloff in the company#39;s shares.华尔街的一些人并没有耐心等待个人电脑和平板电脑需求获得新的提振。高盛(Goldman Sachs)和野村券(Nomura Securities)的分析师周四下调了对微软股票的评级,导致该公司股票被抛售。Goldman said investors should sell Microsoft shares, while Nomura downgraded the stock to #39;neutral#39; from #39;buy.#39;高盛说,投资者应卖出微软股票。而野村券则将这只股票的评级从“买进”下调至“中性”。Goldman Sachs said Microsoft needed to do more to court consumers rather than the corporate customers that are Microsoft#39;s major source of profits.高盛说,微软需要采取更多行动来迎合消费者,而不是作为微软主要利润来源的企业客户。 /201304/234716

There is an old rule that economists follow: In making a forecast, give a number or a date—but not both. It is a rule that executives in the autindustry ignore with surprising frequency. In instances involving Volvand Tesla TSLA -1.82% , twcompanies whose names are seldom spoken in the same breath, the lack of caution in setting future sales targets may cause them more trouble than a mere fender bender.经济学家通常会遵守一条老规矩:做预测时,要么给个数字,要么给个日期,但不能两个都给。但汽车业的高管们却经常忽略这条法则。就以沃尔沃(Volvo)和特斯拉(Tesla)为例,这两家公司的名字很少会被拿出来相提并论,但是他们在设置未来的销售目标时都缺乏谨慎,这或许会给他们带来大麻烦。After years of drift, VolvCars is trying trebuild its product line under its Chinese owners Geely Motors. Nlonger content tbe solely identified as a maker of boxy station wagons, Volvhas set its sights on becoming a full-fledged luxury manufacturer—on the same level as the industry’s top producers.经过多年的浮浮沉沉,沃尔沃被新东家中国吉利汽车(Geely Motors)收购后,正在重新构建产品线。沃尔沃不想再被认为只是一家旅行车制造商,而是着眼于成为一个货真价实的豪华车厂家,与其他顶级豪车品牌平起平坐。Its goals are ambitious, aggressive, and yes, audacious. Leading the effort treach them is CEHakan Samuelsson, whcame tVolvfrom Munich-based truck maker MAN in 2009. In an interview with Automotive News, Samuelsson set unexpectedly steep targets for Volvo’s recovery. Among the highlights:它的目标雄心勃勃,激进,甚至可以说大胆。现任CEO哈肯o萨缪尔森于2009年从慕尼黑卡车制造企业MAN公司跳槽至沃尔沃,在近日接受《汽车新闻》(Automotive News)采访时,萨缪尔森意外地给沃尔沃的复苏设置了非常大胆的目标,其中包括:A return tannual U.S. sales of 100,000 plus by 2016;到2016年,使沃尔沃在美国市场的年销量恢复到10万台以上;Arrival in the “elite pantheon of global luxury brands” in three tfour years;3至4年内,进入“全球豪车品牌的精英梯队”;Achievement of 800,000 in global sales in 2020.到2020年,全球销量达到80万台。Developing a true luxury brand that commands a premium price on the strength of its name can’t be done overnight, as Volvshould know. When he was running Lincoln, Jim Farley, whnow heads Ford Europe, used testimate that 15 t20 years would be required televate Lincoln intthe ranks of luxury players. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi, the only three authentic members of the group (excluding exotics like Ferrari and smaller makers like Jaguar) have been at it for decades and have earned their pedigrees with achievements in racing as well as in engineering and technology. Even Lexus doesn’t qualify for this elite grouping because of its weak standing outside the U.S and its lack of any racing credentials.开发一款真正能卖出高价的豪车品牌并非一夜之功,沃尔沃应该清楚这个道理。现任福特公司(Ford)欧洲负责人的吉姆o法利在之前运营林肯品牌时曾经预测道,要让林肯跻身豪华品牌之列,可能需要15至20年的时间。不算法拉利(Farrari)等超跑品牌和捷豹(Jaguar)等小型厂商,目前市场上真正算是豪华品牌的只有奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)、宝马(BMW)和奥迪(Audi),他们已经雄据豪车市场几十年了,而且是靠工艺、科技,甚至是赛车领域的全面成就才有了今天的优势。连雷克萨斯(Lexus)都算不上是高端市场的“第一梯队”,因为它在美国以外市场的美誉度较弱,而且它在赛车领域缺乏建树。Getting tthe top tier requires a financial commitment that Volvhasn’t made. Cadillac has invested billions of dollars in new models since 2000 in a bid tregain its luxury standing and still has more tdo; it is now developing a V-8 powered flagship sedan for 2016. Volvo’s flagship is the 2015 XC90 sport utility, which is powered by a far-less imposing inline four-cylinder engine.要想进入“第一梯队”,需要在财政上做出大量投资,而沃尔沃目前还没有进行这样的投资。自从2000年以来,凯迪拉克(Cadillac)已经投资数十亿美元以重振其豪华品牌的地位,目前仍然有很多工作要做。现在,凯迪拉克正在为2016年研发一款V8引擎的旗舰车型。沃尔沃目前的旗舰车型是2015款XC90 SUV,搭载的是魅力小得多的四缸发动机。Volvhasn’t made its quixotic quest any easier with its recent performance. While it claims a long list of safety firsts—three-point seatbelts, rear-facing child seats, air bags—Volvcars have always been positioned as sub- luxury or “entry luxe”, marketed tbody of devoted fans whfavor practicality over prestige and performance. Volvwas neglected during its years of ownership by Ford (1999-2010), as its product cycles stretched out longer and longer and other makers caught up on the safety front. 2007, and sfar this year its sales have reached only 47,823 (vs. 52, 112 for the same period in 2013).同时,沃尔沃最近的表现也不令人看好它的唐吉诃德式目标。虽然沃尔沃标榜它拥有一长串安全创新,比如三点式安全带、向后儿童座椅和各种气囊,但沃尔沃的车型还是经常被定位为“次豪华”或是“入门级豪车”,瞄准的往往是那些更注重实用性而不是声誉和性能的消费者。在老东家福特旗下时(1999至2010年),它的产品周期拉得越来越长,同时其他厂商也在安全性上追赶了上来,沃尔沃逐渐被市场忽视了。今年至今为止,它的销量只有47,823辆(去年同期有52,112辆)。Samuelsson is pinning his hopes on the belief that Volvo’s squeaky-clean reputation, which served it swell in the past, will resonate with a new generation of buyers. “If you look at what is happening in society, our brand promise is in line with developments,” he said in the interview. “People want tshow that they are taking responsibility for safety and taking responsibility for the environment. I think in the future that will more and more be a premium value.”沃尔沃一向以“极其环保”著称,这种声誉曾经让该公司受益良多。这次萨缪尔森也对这种声誉寄予厚望,希望它能引起新一代消费者的共鸣。他在采访中表示:“如果你注意社会目前的发展动向,你就会发现我们的品牌承诺与这种态势是一致的。人们想要展示他们正在对安全和环境负责。我认为在未来,这将为沃尔沃品牌增添一种溢价。”But Samuelsson overlooks changes in the market that will squeeze Volvfrom both the bottom and the top. The German Three have been rolling out more and more new models, many at price points that used tbe considered entry-luxe. Buyers shopping for a European brand can now choose between, say, Mercedes three-pointed star and Volvo’s ring and arrow emblem (a symbol for iron in Sweden but representing male sexuality in the U.S). That’s a tough comparison for Volvo.但是萨缪尔森忽视了市场正在发生的变化,这种变化正在高低两端给沃尔沃造成挤压。首先,“德系三巨头”一直在推出新车型,其中不少车型的价格都是过去所谓“入门级豪车”的价格。打个比方,现在想购买欧系车的消费者可以从奔驰和沃尔沃之间选一款。那么他是会选奔驰的“三角星”,还是沃尔沃的圆环加箭头呢(沃尔沃的LOGO造型在瑞典是铁的象征,但在美国则代表着男性象征)?对于沃尔沃来说,这是一个艰难的比较。At the same time, volume brands like Toyota and Hyundai have been steadily adding upgraded features and entertainment, safety, and performance options that used tonly be available on luxury models. That leaves very little space in the middle for brands like Acura, Infiniti, Lincoln – or Volvo. ” “Volvo’s goals aren’t completely unattainable but even if Volvo’s decisions are perfect, the competitive landscape is extremely challenging tthrive and grow in,” says Jessica Caldwell, senior analyst at Edmunds.com., the car-shopping web site.与此同时,像丰田(Toyota)、现代(Hyundai)等平价品牌也在逐步添加高端功能、设施、安全配置和动力选择。这样一来,留给讴歌(Acura)、英菲尼迪(Infiniti)、林肯(Lincoln)或沃尔沃等中端品牌的空间已经很小了。汽车购买网站Edmunds.com的高级分析师杰西卡o卡德维尔指出:“沃尔沃的目标并不是完全不可能达到,但是即便沃尔沃的决策很完美,在如此激烈的竞争环境下,要想复苏和增长还是极具挑战性的。”Tesla finds itself in a different, if not equally difficult, dilemma. Worries are growing that there is a large novelty element attached tthe appeal of his ,000 battery-powered car that will be difficult treplicate as its sales volumes grow. Consumer Reports added fuel tthe worries when it reported that the company has about 2,300 remaining 2014 Model S cars, including showroom display cars, which the company is selling at a discount.特斯拉则陷入另一个同样棘手的困境中。首先是有人担心随着销量的增长,这款价值8万美元的电动跑车所带来的新奇感将逐渐下降。其次是《消费者报告》(Consumer Reports)称,特斯拉目前还有大约2300台没有售出的2014款Model S(包括展车)正在打折销售。One Seeking Alpha blogger figures that more than half of Tesla buyers are what he describes as essentially opportunistic. The Model S became an unexpected addition ttheir fleet of cars, and if it hadn’t been available, they wouldn’t have bought another luxury sedan of any description. “In subsequent years,” he reasons, “there will be lower numbers of purchasers deliberately modifying their normal purchase behaviors in order tget a Model S.”一位主在金融网站Seeking Alpha上指出,购买特斯拉的人中有一半以上可以被称作“机会型购买者”。购买Model S是人们在名下已经拥有的汽车之外的额外消费,如果没有特斯拉,他们也不会转而购买任何一款豪车。他解释道:“在未来几年,特地调整自己的正常购买行为来买入Model S的人将变少。”For Musk treach his outsize targets, he will have taccomplish three things that he hasn’t tried before.要想实现他的宏大目标,埃隆o马斯克必须要完成三件他以前未曾尝试过的事情。He will have tdevelop a robust distribution system that can offer test drives, provide service, and handle trade-ins. State franchise laws are currently limiting Tesla tthe establishment of showrooms that are capable of displaying cars but dlittle else.他必须建立一个强有力的经销网络,以便提供试驾和售后务、处理二手车交易。各州目前的特许经营法律使得特斯拉只能设立一些展厅,除了展示轿车以外,这些展厅几乎做不了其他什么事情。He will have tscale up his production capacity at a rate that the autindustry has never seen before. Musk wants tdouble output by the end of 2015 and make five times as many cars by 2020.他必须以汽车业前所未有的速度提高产能。马斯克希望特斯拉的产能到2015年末翻一番,到2020年增长5倍。He will have tsuccessfully launch his third all-new product, the more affordable Gen III, and make it profitably for less than half of what the Model S sells for. New models are demanding. He’s aly delayed the introduction of his second car, the Model X, several times, and now it isn’t due until 2015’s third quarter.他必须成功地推出第三款全新产品,也就是价格更加亲民的Gen III,并且要在不到Model S一半的价格上使它盈利。新车型要想成功是很难的,马斯克已经数次推迟了第二款车型Model X的发布,现在它可能要等到2015年第三季度才能正式上市。Musk’s Tesla and Geely’s Volvare twvastly different companies with attached narratives that bear little resemblance teach other. But at this point in time, they find themselves in the same predicament: Living up tdates and numbers that give new meaning tthe term “stretch targets.”马斯克的特斯拉和吉利的沃尔沃是两家非常不同的公司,彼此很少有相像之处。但是这一次,他们陷入了相同的窘境:要在设定的时间里完成预定的销量,实现他们的“远大目标”。 /201411/344396

Japanese researchers on Friday unveiled a population clock that showed the nation#39;s people could theoretically become extinct in 1,000 years because of declining birth rates.日本研究人员上周五发布了一个人口倒计时钟,该时钟显示,由于出生率持续下降,理论上日本人将于1000年后灭绝。Academics in the northern city of Sendai said that Japan#39;s population of children aged up to 14, which now stands at 16.6 million, is shrinking at the rate of one every 100 seconds.日本北部城市仙台的学者称,日本14岁以下儿童人口目前为1660万,正在以每100秒1个的速度减少。Their extrapolations pointed to a Japan with no children left within a millennium.学者们的推断指出,日本在1000年后将没有儿童。;If the rate of decline continues, we will be able to celebrate the Children#39;s Day public holiday on May 5, 3011 as there will be one child,; said Hiroshi Yoshida, an economics professor at Tohoku University.日本东北大学的经济学教授吉田浩说:“按这种下降速度,到3011年5月5日我们将剩下一名儿童,仍能庆祝儿童节。”;But 100 seconds later there will be no children left,; he said. ;The overall trend is towards extinction, which started in 1975 when Japan#39;s fertility rate fell below two.;他说:“但再过100秒,日本将没有儿童。自从1975年日本生育率降到每名育龄妇女两个孩子以内,走向灭绝便成了总体趋势。”Yoshida said he created the population clock to encourage ;urgent; discussion of the issue.吉田说他创立这一人口钟是为了鼓励人们“紧急”开展关于这一问题的讨论。Another study released earlier this year showed Japan#39;s population is expected to shrink to a third of its current 127.7 million over the next century.今年早些时候发布的另一项研究显示,下世纪日本人口将缩减到现有人口(1.277亿)的三分之一。Government projections show the birth rate will hit just 1.35 children per woman within 50 years, well below the replacement rate.政府预测显示,50年内日本生育率将降至每名妇女1.35个小孩,大大低于人口替换率。Meanwhile, life expectancy -- aly one of the highest in the world -- is expected to rise from 86.39 years in 2010 to 90.93 years in 2060 for women and from 79.64 years to 84.19 years for men.与此同时,日本已然是世界第一的人口寿命将进一步延长。日本女性的平均寿命将从2010年的86.39岁增加到2060年的90.93岁,而日本男性的寿命将从2010年的79.64岁增加到2060年的84.19岁。More than 20 percent of Japan#39;s people are aged 65 or over, one of the highest proportions of elderly in the world.超过20%的日本人年龄在65岁以上(含65岁),是世界上老年人口比例最大的国家之一。Japan has very little immigration and any suggestion of opening the borders to young workers who could help plug the population gap provokes strong reactions among the public.日本的外来移民很少,向外国年轻工人开放边境能帮助填补人口差距,但这种提议总是会激起民众的强烈反应。The greying population is a headache for policymakers who are faced with trying to ensure an ever-dwindling pool of workers can pay for a growing number of pensioners.老龄化人口是让决策者头疼的事情,他们面临着如何用不断减少的劳动人口付的养老金来养活越来越多的退休老人的问题。But for some Japanese companies the inverting of the traditional ageing pyramid provides commercial opportunities.然而,对一些日本公司而言,传统老龄化金字塔结构的这一倒转提供了商机。Unicharm said Friday that sales of its adult diapers had ;slightly surpassed; those for babies in the financial year to March, for the first time since the company moved into the seniors market.日本尤妮佳公司上周五称,在截止到三月的上一个财政年度中,成人尿布的销量“略微超过了”婴儿尿布的销量,这在该公司进军老年人市场后是首次。 /201205/182797


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